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Can the iPad outsell the original iPhone in its first year?

Combined iPhone sales.


The original iPhone took roughly one year to hit the 10 million mark. It wasn't until Q4 of 2008 when the iPhone went international that sales really kicked into a higher orbit hitting 6.89 million in that one quarter alone. Now that we have the official launch date from Apple it's possible to start speculating how long it will take the iPad to hit that important 10 millionth sale.

There are good reasons to believe that the iPad will sell much quicker than the iPhone. First and foremost, unlike the iPhone there will be no lock-in to any one network carrier. Secondly, total cost of ownership is way lower, though not quite in the impulse buy category, at $499 (probably about £390) the iPad will tempt many potential laptop and netbook purchasers.

If the iPad developer community can create better than desktop class applications – much like Apple has with its own iWork applications – then the iPad could rapidly become all the home (or business) computer you need.

For the record, based on anecdotal evidence and a frustration with both Mac and PC computing environments, iPad Creative predict that the iPad will bolt past the 10 million mark in less than 10 months.

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